Zack Beauchamp

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@billyez2 Lololol Billy lololol — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DouthatNYT @DamonLinker Any account of RR development has to focus on abortion politics, for the reasons you suggest. But there's a wide gulf between that minimal and the view you advanced in the column, for reasons I pointed to here https://t.co/zQniHOfhja — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DouthatNYT @DamonLinker I don't think erasing any of that is required. The Balmer argument is not that abortion was *irrelevant* to the development of the Religious Right — that's absurd — but that it wasn't the impetus for the movement's emergence as an organized political force. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

This is what a morale-depleted force looks like — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

It is simply not the case that Russia is a Chinese proxy. China's role in the Ukraine war to date has been relatively limited. No evidence Beijing sees the outcome as of vital importance for its contest with Washington. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

This is a great example of how looking for a catchy frame can badly distort one's judgment — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @KofmanMichael: It’s May 9th. Looks like Putin didn’t announce anything. Was somewhat puzzled by the expectations levied on this date. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DamonLinker @DouthatNYT The data on race's central role in realignment is exceptionally clear — beyond dispute, really. Hood/Kidd/Morris are, I think, particularly good on this point — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DouthatNYT @DamonLinker This French piece basically concedes Ballmer’s argument on the elite level and shifts to argue that abortion was the thing that brought it to the mass public. Except school desegregation was also a huge part of that, says noted liberal Matt Continetti https://t.co/eUtmdVjq1v — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DamonLinker @DouthatNYT On #1, I wrote that "processes began" referring to racial realignment. It's a complex story, but race is at the heart of it. On #2, I don't see how your argument is responsive to what I said. I find Balmer's argument persuasive https://t.co/YRq5BPHzGx — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DouthatNYT Of course religious polarization is part of the story! But that's not what we're discussing, it's the causal influence of Roe specifically — not even the abortion issue in general, specifically the Court's intervention. And I'm saying the evidence for that is very thin. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DouthatNYT That doesn't mean they're untrue though! The research on each point is fairly solid. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

My read of the history is that the religious right emerged as an intentional political project, not in organic opposition to abortion — which became a vital part of the project as it developed. Not obvious to me why keeping abortion on the ballot would have discouraged this. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Three big problems: 1) The processes that led to extreme polarization began with FDR and were pretty much about race 2) Emergence of religious right was a reaction to school desegregation, not Roe 3) Mass evangelical opposition to abortion is a relatively modern phenomenon — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Seems to me that the argument that Roe kickstared polarization is largely at odds with the data on partisan realignment — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

It's wild how thoroughly the justly-discredited slogan "America First" has been rehabilitated — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @grouchybagels: Something I need people to understand: when we say women will die from abortion bans, it is because they will die *from… — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@alex_abads what is this quiz — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@Joelmentum I get the argument in theory, I just think it's completely wrong in practice — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@CasMudde @MilanSvolik @Matt__Graham yeah twitter space limits forced me to oversimplify it a bit, it's specifically about dynamics in contemporary america under conditions of extreme polarization, thought it builds on svolik's work on venezuela and turkey — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Obviously, abortion was always part of that dynamic. Now that there's going to be a real legislative fight about whether to outlaw or protect abortion, at the state and federal level, the stakes of elections just got even higher. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

One of the best recent papers I've read on democratic backsliding, by @MilanSvolik and @Matt__Graham, finds that partisans endorse anti-democratic politicians on "their" side because the consequences of losing to the opposing side are seen as too high https://t.co/duHPXuIQem — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

The other thing I'll say about the politics of overturning Roe is that the ensuing fights will almost certainly deepen extreme partisanship and thus raise the danger of another extinction-level event for American democracy — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@CharlesFLehman The problem with absolute shares is that i don't know where economic fundamentals will be at in November, and those will probably matter as much or more. I know the way I phrased it is only resolvable by fancy political science years later, but it's what I'm confident about! — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@jduffyrice @AdamSerwer a key part of my theory is that roe v. wade is uniquely salient, and overturning it wholesale and unequivocally would have an effect on public opinion no more other policy change could. this could very well be wrong, it's just where my head is at. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@CharlesFLehman Hm the wording is tricky here. Maybe something like $50 on "a decision fully overturning Roe would cause an identifiable shift of at least 1.5 points in the national House vote to Democrats." The more the points figure goes up, the less money I'd bet. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@AdamSerwer It's possible you're right, of course. My strongest view on the matter is that we're about to be in an unprecedented situation which is, by its nature, unpredictable. But I think there will be a push for total bans — IIRC 11 states have ones that'll come into force automatically — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

To understand how high-profile these issues are about to become, read @michelleinbklyn's latest. The end of Roe is the beginning of an even bigger abortion war — where Democrats are on policy defense but on the right side of public opinion https://t.co/VUrtZ3Se0r — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Left activists pushing police defunding in 2020 may well have damaged the Democratic brand even though those activists had very little influence in the actual party. Pro-life activists are integral parts of the GOP coalition, and they'll be pushing for abortion maximalism. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

If Alito's decision comes out in the form we've seen, you're going to get a series of red states imposing outright bans rapidly. At least some high-profile Republicans will call for a federal ban. This will put the party very far from the public on a very salient issue. — PolitiTweet.org