Zack Beauchamp

@zackbeauchamp ↗

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Last Checked June 3, 2022

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Fri May 06 14:54:08 +0000 2022

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@jduffyrice @AdamSerwer a key part of my theory is that roe v. wade is uniquely salient, and overturning it wholesale and unequivocally would have an effect on public opinion no more other policy change could. this could very well be wrong, it's just where my head is at. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2022

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@CharlesFLehman Hm the wording is tricky here. Maybe something like $50 on "a decision fully overturning Roe would cause an identifiable shift of at least 1.5 points in the national House vote to Democrats." The more the points figure goes up, the less money I'd bet. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2022

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@CharlesFLehman The problem with absolute shares is that i don't know where economic fundamentals will be at in November, and those will probably matter as much or more. I know the way I phrased it is only resolvable by fancy political science years later, but it's what I'm confident about! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2022