(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I know I want to watch the Bills. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ClareMalone @Tonyhkchow TONAY! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Sorta a fun exercise... I went back to 2016 & look at the polls from Jan 2016 through this point (sans Ipsos tracker cause otherwise it would dominate). The average Clinton lead was 6 pts, as Biden's has been. But the spread was 1.5 times as much then. As in it was more volatile. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This was a rather key week in the 2016 polling... Trump took a lead against Clinton in a few high profile polls... This came after he clinched the nomination against Clinton. Clinton would regain a clear lead after a few weeks, but these polls showed her lead was fragile. https://t.co/4pd7ZYsVzh — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I just had fried chicken & fries from the local Chinese takeout restaurant. The place had been closed for two months... I haven't been this happy with a meal in a long, long time. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

High quality state polling (15k interviews & 20+ polls) since April 1 suggests Biden leads by 7-8 pts nationally, is ahead in states totaling a majority of electoral votes, & said lead is wide enough to withstand a 2016 like error were election held today. https://t.co/ZAaPTZqFoE — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @jodyavirgan: If you haven’t had a chance to listen to @thisdaypod, catch up this weekend. Most recent episodes are a reunion with @Fore… — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There's a line in there that isn't as easy to toe as it may seem... One in which Biden is favored, but Trump has a real chance. That is where we are right now. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@RussOnPolitics Could be right. Covered that stat last week. :) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This week I did two podcasts.... I did @henryolsenEPPC's https://t.co/NKRdql8TeE where we discussed a lot of stuff... I also did @PodSaveAmerica with @TVietor08 https://t.co/pYL3aoOsaO — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Moreover, as recently as 2014, the side that won the midterm was actually less enthusiastic about voting for their House candidates than the losing side. Midterms, like 2020 is shaping up to be, are referendums. A negative vote against Trump may very well be enough for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This comes with big league caveats, however, which I don't often see discussed. Not the least of which is enthusiasm does NOT equal votes. If you're ahead by 5 in the final polls, that's far more predictive of the outcome than any enthusiasm edge. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Trump supporters are far more enthusiastic about their guy than Biden's are about him. The candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters has won every presidential election since 1988 (i.e. as far back as the data goes). https://t.co/3SiQoheZPo — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There's so much good stuff in this thread, but I think this is so key. Many folks are in the middle on keeping shutdowns vs. opening back up. They want some opening up but not a "let's go back to the way it was." — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@GerardSaintLou2 @AWRootBeer @Target @kroger Not to here on Target. I've tried :(. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@PollsterPatrick @AWRootBeer That should be at most $10 and it's $36 :(. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I wish @AWRootBeer shipped diet cream soda. I would buy so much of that from them. Hard to find otherwise here in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

At least part of the reason you see so many GOP/conservative polls in GA is there are a lot of competing interests (Kemp, Collins, etc.). And while some of the underlying numbers (Kemp approval, GOP standing in jungle primary, etc.) change, Biden/Trump remain competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@DemFromCT Yep. It's nuts. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@DemFromCT I have seen too many people who don't have it over the nose. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

We're entering month 3 of an economy devastated by coronavirus. Yet, Trump's seen no real downturn in his still positive econ approval ratings, & voters trust him over Biden on the economy. The extra twist? It may not matter, as Biden still to lead overall https://t.co/VIlCEi9923 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Additionally, a mask and a seat belt may feel a little uncomfortable... but again they save lives. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I wear a mask for the same reason I wear a seat belt: it saves lives. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I very much enjoyed this channel, and I'm extremely saddened that it will no longer be in existence. I wish the NFL could have worked with this guy. https://t.co/wVXVDrqUkZ — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

But what about the non haters (i.e. those who dislike neither Biden nor Trump)? https://t.co/ZBWhMZZ7wr — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@islivingston OHHHHH YEA!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@islivingston Strange looking dog. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This was a BIG issue for Engel in 2000. https://t.co/HX7bygCgK0 https://t.co/SWax4vlxtv — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Swing voters couldn't care a lick about Russia etc. during Mueller's investigation. I tend to very much doubt they would now. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @jodyavirgan: Ron Paul was kind of a Bernie of the right. New episode of @thisdaypod with @pastpunditry and, one last time, @ForecasterE… — PolitiTweet.org