(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Sat May 16 14:36:31 +0000 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This comes with big league caveats, however, which I don't often see discussed. Not the least of which is enthusiasm does NOT equal votes. If you're ahead by 5 in the final polls, that's far more predictive of the outcome than any enthusiasm edge. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 16, 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Trump supporters are far more enthusiastic about their guy than Biden's are about him. The candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters has won every presidential election since 1988 (i.e. as far back as the data goes). https://t.co/3SiQoheZPo — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 16, 2020

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Moreover, as recently as 2014, the side that won the midterm was actually less enthusiastic about voting for their House candidates than the losing side. Midterms, like 2020 is shaping up to be, are referendums. A negative vote against Trump may very well be enough for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 16, 2020