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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What a great cream soda and fried chicken break. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
IDK if that Q-Pac poll is right or not. (Add it to the average.) I will say this... The chance of a president getting a second term with a net approval rating of -24 points is basically zilch. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Just got an automated call "we've been trying to reach you concerning your car's extended warranty"... The problem? I don't own a car. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Thanks to @JedKolko for some data... The partisan gap on who is wearing a mask has doubled over the past 3 months (with Dems more likely), even as the partisan gap in the new Covid-19 cases by county has gone from 2 or 3:1 Dem to GOP to basically even. https://t.co/etaF4rfWKl — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden's been, to put it mildly, doing very well in polls in MI, PA and WI... To win overall, he doesn't need to win any sunbelt states where he is ahead but Clinton lost. MI + PA + WI do it for him, if he holds onto the Clinton states. https://t.co/Cf8CWikD10 https://t.co/75T78tyjt6 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
New Monmouth PA poll has Biden above 50% and an average of their two LV and RV estimates have him up 10 pts. Clinton was at 40% at this point in PA and only up 2. These races are so completely different. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Slade LOL — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Slade The answer is Tom Bosley. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
.@pollsterpatrick does the Pollster L8rd's work. Monmouth is a quality poll, and I know few kinder people than @pollsterpatrick. Also, very attentive to any real criticism (of which there is little). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Some interesting stuff here on Covid-19 by county from @JedKolko https://t.co/VPcNAs6G45 — PolitiTweet.org
Jed Kolko (mostly unplugged until 7/27) @JedKolko
COVID19 cases are rising in red and blue places, but the biggest surge has been in the blue counties of red states.… https://t.co/9q2V8brFp1
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I want to eat ice cream for dinner... Is that wrong? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is interesting... As I noted this past weekend, Trump's heading towards a very bad place in history if doesn't win a second term. https://t.co/0YIi52QRH9 https://t.co/TjMH5UI7fS — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This saddened me — PolitiTweet.org
Steve Koczela @skoczela
Some news about The @MassINCPolling Group. https://t.co/zs6miaHMqT https://t.co/vnheQnjtJL
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'm actually spurred on by some good convos I've been having... What's the difference between swing state and battleground state? Is there one? Is a swing state just another term for bellwether? Wikipedia (fwiw) seems to use swing and battleground interchangeably. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @POLITICO_Steve: Needless to say, this is not an appropriate practice for a news organization. (Or maybe I do need to say it?) (Deleted… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I see something similar... But wanna see more data for making too big a thing of it... https://t.co/hLqfwmwdgU https://t.co/p0cPVkspwV — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
We haven't had very many live interview polls yet in July, but it does seem to me that almost all of the online dat… https://t.co/ztjFdTa8ac
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In fact, most political races we watch are within that 95% CI. A Biden win, by almost every metric I know, is the more likely probability. But we still have 4 months to go. We'd expect Trump to win more often than we see an outlier poll. https://t.co/KkmSASmu1h — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I've found that some folks generally don't "understand" odds. No doubt Biden is the favorite for November, but forecasting out the race... We can say a Trump win is within the true margin of error (i.e. 95% confidence interval). https://t.co/KkmSASmu1h — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Between that troll map saying the Bills were the most loved sports team in NY State and this Lou Saban comment, it's been a banner day for #billsmafia Twitter. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@RalstonReports I was not at the Rockpile. As Paul Maguire would say, it was the only place where they'd throw full beer cans at you... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Lou Saban coached the awesome fullback Cookie Gilchrist in the 60s. Gilchrist was a great civil rights advocate. Also, once ran over a defender & knocked him out of the game. He then walked past the defensive huddle & asked "which one of you mother [blanks] is next?" — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Lou Saban was a great coach for the Bills in the 60s and 70s. — PolitiTweet.org
Elaina Plott @elainaplott
Tonight in a conference call with Tommy Tuberville, Trump repeatedly referred to Nick Saban as Lou Saban. "He's gre… https://t.co/kreMpEHm3F
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel The best in Ohio State in Michigan. LOL. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@richardmskinner Looks like MRP, not a poll in the way we normally think of it. Look a like Mr. Morris'. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@POLITICO_Steve @PollsterPatrick I totally misinterpreted what Patrick was asking... and I only figured it out cause of this! (Even if it was jokey.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsterPatrick Like Covid is definitely at the top list of what people think is the most important problem in the US, but it seems to be lower on the motivating vote choice. I kinda think the former is actually truer, but again I could be off. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsterPatrick I personally like 4, not 3 categories. People seem to go for that middle. But I could be way off. I'm also interested in differences between things people say are problems vs. motivating vote choice. 1/? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
And as always, it really is important that if if you like what you heard... Leave a comment and subscribe. https://t.co/PVNKHSoVZh — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I know some of you have missed me in podcast form, so good news! :) Here's a mini-pod for you on how this is the coronavirus election. The polling and history shows us whoever (Biden or Trump) is trusted more on coronavirus will likely win the election. https://t.co/PVNKHSoVZh — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Hoosier114 I think they meant 50 per month. — PolitiTweet.org
