(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Like we've been through this song and dance before... I'm not usually in the business of going into individual polls and picking out flaws. If pollsters put out the occasional "outlier", it makes me think more highly of them, not less. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

What this essentially means is that if pollsters are doing their job, there should be the occasional polls that have Trump ahead in some very important states. Chances are those polls will not be "the truth"... but there's a possibility that they are. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Re: ABC/WaPo, here are facts as I see them. Biden is leading in the electoral college. Biden's lead is within the true margin of error. Chances are Biden's going to keep his lead through the election. Chances are Biden's lead will never be outside the MoE. https://t.co/tTayUr41py — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I know everybody is talking a lot about the new poll from Qriously. (How is that pronounced, btw?) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden can win without Florida. Trump likely cannot. If Trump takes the Sunshine State, election night could very well turn into election week as we wait for ballots from the Great Lake Battlegrounds with no real idea who will win. https://t.co/K0pmt1rr8D — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@EsotericCD <----------- this — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Here are all the Florida polls released over the last two weeks... (Also known as all I could fit on the screenshot) https://t.co/oR7XY6bLBi — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'll also say these are difficult to square with what we see from ABC/WaPo had in Minnesota & Wisconsin last week... Just another reason to average & to remember the MoE applies to the individual candidates, not the margin. U gotta 2x it approximately. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Honestly think these are the best polls Trump has had in 6 months? https://t.co/S71WNHRt9f Of course, we've had a lot of polls in these states & these are... well they're unique. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Such a spread in the numbers isn't the sign of an outlier... It's the sign of pollsters doing their jobs... It's also often a sign that we're getting a lot of data from a state... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

So say the average lead in a state is 3 points... And a lot of polls have state polls have margins of error of +/- 4.5 (approximately)... You could/should get results ranging from the leader up double digits to down by like 5 pts! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One thing I find consistently is that folks don't know the margin of error applies to the individual candidates and not the margin. Approximately, you double the stated MoE to get it for the margin... This means most polls in a close race show an inside the MoE result. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Here's a video I did on Florida... There really isn't any battleground state quite like it. It looks & votes more like the the nation than pretty much any other state that has competitive elections. https://t.co/mTjp2nnqb1 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I have made an executive decision. Wendy's will be today's lunch. Thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This is right. Fat tails in the electoral college distribution for sure... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Speaking of which... here's a tie in Iowa. A state Trump won by 9 in 2016 and which the final polling was quite good. https://t.co/BLwtyBatBd — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

A lot of Trump's vulnerabilities in places like GA+IA+TX+OH haven't been too apparent because the polling in those places has been limited. This morning a high quality poll from GA comes out... and it's a tie. https://t.co/V2aQLRcutu https://t.co/Xu2rwkLN6A — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The Lieberman thing I think is probably overwrought in GA. Yes, a lockout for the Dems from the runoff is possible... but there are a lot more undecided Dem than GOP voters for round one. And there will be a clear push for Warnock among Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Look, we'll see how this ultimately plays, but folks who thought a Supreme Court vacancy would be a good thing for the GOP in the election... are not seeing polls vindicate that point of view. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Pretty consistent stuff here. Most voters in the polls taken after Friday have said wait on the Supreme Court pick... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Every day that passes is one day less for Trump to make up his deficit. There is little sign of movement in the polls over the last week. We'll see what this week brings. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I think we should start a pet thread... Folks if you got a photo of your pet that you wish to share... Please do so below... Thank you :). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Josh Allen looks... really, really good. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

IDK what impact the Supreme Court vacancy will have on 2020... What I will say is I've heard a lot of arguments why it will help the GOP. Those arguments strike me as almost universally poorly thought out. https://t.co/RCPrSH60W9 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

IDK what is sillier... Those who don't think Trump has a shot... Those who think that it's an amazing position to take that Trump does have a shot... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This is Heidi game level. Bills gave up a td and fumbled while this game has been off... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Apparently there are technical difficulties with the Miami/Bills broadcast... so they are now showing Pittsburgh? I don't care about this game. Provide me audio. Something. Use stick figures. Anything from the Bills game. This is nuts. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This... mostly looks like the averages in both states. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Why it could be a Biden blowout in November... Biden's ahead or within a point or two in states totaling over 400 electoral votes. It's not the most likely outcome, but it's quite conceivable that Biden runs away with this when all the votes are counted. https://t.co/V2aQLRcutu — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

NBC is Biden +8 nationally... https://t.co/cfxzLpUjRA https://t.co/virJeumij1 — PolitiTweet.org