(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

He did it in 2007 as well. https://t.co/CBIHOn8YsD (9 min 30 sec if the time stamp doesn't work.) But then, it looked good & was received well. Last night, it wasn't. Perhaps because Biden was on the defensive vs. offense. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One thing Biden a lot last night was actually AGREE to be cutoff at the time limit. Most pols just blow through when a moderator tries to stop them. Biden though doesn't want to be seen as undisciplined, so he stops. This isn't new for him... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I think I've generally been more optimistic on Biden's chances than Sean (though nothing he wrote I disagree with). This is right on. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 @JohnBerman 4:00-4:30... SO yea... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@JohnBerman @NateSilver538 LOL. I'm not even on the show this morning! So to answer the question, I have not gone to bed. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 SUP BRO?! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden will probably still be up in this race after this... even if his lead is sliced... The question for the campaign is what does he do from here. No one. No one floats to a nomination. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

More thoughts... Democrats have said they are not enthusiastic about nominating a candidate over 75... Biden looked not as sharp compared to past debate performances... Will voters connect that to his age? May not matter if they connect it to electability. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nathanlgonzales Of course. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Maybe the amplification of this moment could cause a larger effect?... and it's certainly the case that Harris is in a stronger position to take advantage of a bump... but I think I'll wait for polling cause why not... We'll get it soon enough. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

We know primary debates have moved things in the past. We know Carly Fiorina went up by ~5 points following her moment with Trump in 2015... But we also know that effect was momentary... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Nothing gets me going like a strong debate moment... Well maybe Wendy's... But the point is, you knew what you were seeing when Harris did it. Will have a large effect?... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

LOL https://t.co/EFlleL9gRa — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There are essentially two graphics I'm looking at. 1. Biden was at 49% with black voters in our CNN polls combining April/May. 2. Biden's support has been so steady at about 30%-33% in part because of number 1. Cause if tonight doesn't shake 1/2... What will? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

They sense blood, and I don't blame em. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

That was... Savage. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Pretty clear why Buttigieg has been up and O'Rourke has been down... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This is good stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

K. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I just think the media can strike that balance of portraying someone (like Biden) as someone who clearly has an advantage, but one that is tenuous. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

3. We know that frontrunners who are weak in the early states also tend to do worse. Interestingly, Biden's actually leading in IA and NH if you look at most polling. But again, it's not a runaway advantage by any stretch. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

2. We know that someone polling around 30% (like Biden) wins often enough that we shouldn't dismiss the advantage, while at the same time framing it as someone who most likely is not going to win the nomination. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

What do we know from early polling and how does it apply to this year? 1. We know that when there is a runaway frontrunner (i.e. polling above 35%) that person wins more often than not. No one is doing that. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

My favorite (I'm kidding) type of analysis is to take polling from one year and then apply that lesson fully to another. You should be looking at a host of years to see if a pattern emerges. Yet, I continuously see the one dive look when it comes to early primary polling. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Actually, another thought & to argue against myself. U could def argue that if Warren's goal is to coalesce the very liberal lane (*i know politics are far more messy than lanes) then this = success. But I don't think that group of voters is big enuf to win the nom. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@williamjordann I think voters policy choices on this issue are not greatly defined imho. We know this in part because a lot of Dems don't even know Medicare for all is! Many Dems are fine with either option, if you believe the polling. So I think they can be led, if that makes any sense. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@aedwardslevy LOL! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Final note: there is a substantial portion of the Dem primary that still calls itself moderate. The big reason Biden has been leading the pack nationally is he's been dominating that lane. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

You saw Harris having problems/going back and forth on eliminating private insurers earlier this year... If you believe the polling (and "shockingly"I do), there's a reason for that. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

We know from the polling that eliminating private insurance does NOT poll well with the general electorate. A public option polls much better... and fwiw, a public option polls well with Democrats too. We also knows Democrats are very interested in beating Trump. — PolitiTweet.org