(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 9, 2020

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Thu Jun 27 16:03:28 +0000 2019

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

What do we know from early polling and how does it apply to this year? 1. We know that when there is a runaway frontrunner (i.e. polling above 35%) that person wins more often than not. No one is doing that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

My favorite (I'm kidding) type of analysis is to take polling from one year and then apply that lesson fully to another. You should be looking at a host of years to see if a pattern emerges. Yet, I continuously see the one dive look when it comes to early primary polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

2. We know that someone polling around 30% (like Biden) wins often enough that we shouldn't dismiss the advantage, while at the same time framing it as someone who most likely is not going to win the nomination. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2019 Hibernated