(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 9, 2020

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Thu Jun 27 16:04:35 +0000 2019

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

2. We know that someone polling around 30% (like Biden) wins often enough that we shouldn't dismiss the advantage, while at the same time framing it as someone who most likely is not going to win the nomination. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

What do we know from early polling and how does it apply to this year? 1. We know that when there is a runaway frontrunner (i.e. polling above 35%) that person wins more often than not. No one is doing that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

3. We know that frontrunners who are weak in the early states also tend to do worse. Interestingly, Biden's actually leading in IA and NH if you look at most polling. But again, it's not a runaway advantage by any stretch. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2019 Hibernated