(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

What happened in Wisconsin was, I think almost everybody would agree, a disaster. And we saw how coronavirus can impact turnout (see Illinois)... Steps must be taken... Otherwise, it could be a disaster. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Of course a lot of different ideas on the board right now... but outside of big league law changes, the big thing is voters need to be informed starting now & likely funds will need to be given election boards to get ready for onslaught of sending out a lot more ballots. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Today's Video: If we're going massively expand voting by mail in 2020, those efforts need to start now. Most states (& 90% of all swing states) have no excuse absentee voting, but most voters haven't done it & most election boards aren't used to it. https://t.co/2vPGDsq9LC https://t.co/z9vpc3aSZo — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The high quality polling average over last 6 months in PA is a 3 point Biden lead. That's the same as it is in FL. I was surprised by that, but it's there. 2018 was not a great year for Dems in FL, but nonwhites make up a lot more of non 2018 voters in FL than Midwest. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Today's video: Folks may be overlooking Florida in 2020. Poll avg over last 6 months shows Biden's lead in FL is same or greater as PA/WI. It has a ton of electoral votes. And Biden likely to benefit from prez year turnout in FL in ways he won't in Midwest https://t.co/RJlRQ8qXN6 https://t.co/QWKEYrYLI1 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Computers are weird. My laptop keyboard randomly stopped working on Friday... and randomly started working just in the past 10 minutes. Que sera, sera. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Even at Biden's weakest, he still was tied for second nationally with Bloomberg... Was a tipoff in real time as to how Buttigieg/Klobuchar would fare once we got out of IA/NH... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The big thing I took away from the 2016 GOP primary was to trust the polling and to believe the national polling shouldn't be overlooked. Trump led a month in and never gave it up. Biden led almost the entire way, despite what many on this platform thought. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Seems pretty clear looking at all the numbers that Trump's approval bump has plateaued for now... which would be on the early (though not crazy early) side for rally around the flag events. https://t.co/XgONFJUaKo — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Seems to be a hot topic today, so I'll repost my video from yesterday... How 2020 could break some election forecasting models (e.g. one model based mostly on 2nd GDP may project Trump winning an impossible negative electoral votes) https://t.co/OlNGbJebvf https://t.co/NmbwWDHWNy https://t.co/2bG98KSDis — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@PatrickRuffini I like this whole thread. Two thoughts: 1. I think folks need a sense of it getting better than worse. 2. I'm unsure 02 is a great (though it may be the best) comparison cause the correlation between the economy & midterms is far shakier. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

A lot of these models rely on Q2... As I hinted at in last tweet, that's fine for a guide... but this sort of things shows the potential limits to using one quarter out of many in black swan situations. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@GerryDales I called it darkly humorous to someone. Dark cause no one wants to see this. Humorous because it shows the limits of this type of model. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

As I discussed more in the video, probably better to know whether folks think the economy is getting better or worse by E-Day. Given Trump has underperformed relative to economic reviews so far, tough to see him winning if folks think economy is getting worse. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Today's Video (after my keyboard broke Friday): Black swan alert. Some 2nd Q GDP forecasts are so dire (~35% shrinkage) that one well known model will project Trump winning an impossible negative 440 electoral votes if those GDP forecasts (-35%) are right. https://t.co/OlNGbJebvf https://t.co/ySq1p2V9Vb — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Will film a video tmrw on a special Saturday edition. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Update that I know you've been waiting on pins and needles for... I have procured a USB keyboard for $10 at a Duane Reade... which given I'm not actually traveling anywhere for the foreseeable future is a more than satisfactory solution. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Folks, my keyboard has broken. Hence no video. I am fine, if you were worried. Working on solution. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Obviously, we want to look at both measurements, but I think it's a major red flag that Trump's net favs are lagging his net approval ratings in a number of polls... and helps to explain at least partially why Trump's lagging in the horserace. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Clinton in 1996 & 2000 was the ultimate example of this... His net favorable ratings were STRONG predictors of the margin in the fall elections, while approval ratings were much higher. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Today's Video: Trump's approval is up, but his deficit vs. Biden remains mostly the same. Why? At least partially cause Trump's favorable ratings remain low. Since 80, fav ratings (as CBS/NBC ask it) have been more predictive than approval of prez outcomes https://t.co/U7BJkEu1Ui https://t.co/YLUCSFMfhz — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Some people: Biden should be doing xyz cause he's flailing. Polls: Biden still leads by 6 nationally against Trump and by 20+ over Sanders... Neither of which seem to have changed appreciably over the last two weeks... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Trump campaign gets it. The polling so far has been highly consistent with a referendum election... And that won't work for Trump given his net fav ratings, even now, remain negative. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Today's Video: Sanders still has no realistic path to the nomination. Trailing in WI by 20+ pts, which he won by 14 in 2016. He has not closed his massive gap to Biden in national polls. Delays in calendar allow Sanders to carry on, but lets's be real here https://t.co/CVvCS1MUQu https://t.co/qBwN7hZPx0 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Last little thing: The folks who have an unfavorable view of both Biden & Trump are big league in Biden's camp... That's the big switch since 2016... All of this can change, but, to me, this picture makes sense. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

1. Trump is the incumbent, so referendum on him makes sense. 2. Some Dems are unfavorable of Biden cause the primary is happening, but will ultimately vote for Biden in a general. (2/?) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The most highly correlated variable with how Trump vs. Biden has been playing out has been Trump's net fav. It's been the case in vast majority of polls. Biden's net fav has been less of a factor... A few theories on that... (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn It's the net fav telling the story here... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

OH and it seems Biden up 28 in the primary, if I'm reading this right. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden +3 in Wisconsin... Trump is in deep trouble if this is right. https://t.co/clwDGAWqUS — PolitiTweet.org