Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

that said, the old maxim that you should 'trust the average' over a single high-quality poll has gotten worse; going forward, there's an increasingly strong basis to give more weight to outlying NYT/Siena poll seriously than i would have said/thought before — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PhysDAnthony even in 16/20 -- where everyone did badly -- you wouldn't have been any worse off to make an nyt/siena poll your final prediction rather than to take the average of all polls (including nyt/siena) — PolitiTweet.org