Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 7, 2022

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Wed Nov 09 01:00:42 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

'It doesn't know much' has consequences for how its initial expectations compare other forecasts. The House is more uncertain than 538 (despite R>4 pop vote and Dems at 203 seats). Dems slightly favored in Sen (more uncertainty = asymmetrically makes WI/OH/NC in play) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the moment, the needle is based on county data (like our 2018/2016 needles that modeled the whole country). The most important thing to know about the county needle: it cares a lot about completed votes, and not much else. Right now, it doesn't know much. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over time, additional needle may be added to the needle. For the first time, we will attempt to integrate multiple data sources into a single integrated national model. We're going to iteratively add and validate -- elements of this are essentially untestable in advance — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022 Just a Typo