Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 6, 2022

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Tue Nov 08 17:34:56 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is especially true where the early vote is first. It would not be at all surprising to me if Kelly has a double digit lead in Arizona in the first batch of mail votes -- even more extreme than '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Dem early vote hopium has important consequences for 'blue mirage' or 'red mirage' tonight. In many states, the early vote is more Democratic than '20 (but likely a smaller share of the electorate, so don't think anything of it). As a result, 'mirages' can be more extreme — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When early vote is second -- PA -- the mirage may be a little more muted than '20. In many states, Democrats may fare better on Election Day than '20 (with Election Day a larger share, so doesn't matter), meaning a smaller GOP lead before early counted — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022