Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 31, 2022

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Mon Sep 12 20:18:12 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2018, there wasn't really a relationship between Democratic standing and the '20 poll error. Indeed, Democrats were often underperforming expectations in the Senate--even in places where polls were wrong in '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In principle, I'm totally agnostic about whether 2018 or 2020 ought to be the best comparison for 2022. The warning sign, though, is that current Democratic overperformance is fairly well-correlated with 2020 error (just as '20 was with '16) https://t.co/UTBFs41eLl — PolitiTweet.org

This is an interesting piece, but 2020 was a presidential year, and 2022 is a midterm. I wonder if the more useful… https://t.co/N1maUtMdam

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I should note that there is also a relationship between Democratic overperformance in '22 and the poll error in 2018! The '18 polls did overestimate Democrats in a lot of these same places, like OH, PA, FL. It's not as strong of a relationship as '20, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022