Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

"Expectations" are the FiveThirtyEight fundamentals. In Wisconsin, for ex., the fundamentals are R+2, the poll average is D+4, so that's Democrats +6 v. expectations. That happens to be fairly similar to the D+8 polling error in 2020 -- a pattern in the Senate battlegrounds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon come on, surely you 'understand the line.' there was ~ no national bias in '18 and that's an incredibly significant difference. if there's no national bias rn, democrats really are in a competitive fight for the house and favored in the senate — PolitiTweet.org