Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 28, 2022

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Mon Sep 12 13:21:35 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

First newsletter post: the polling warning signs are flashing again. Democrats are outpacing expectations in exactly the states where the polls overestimated Joe Biden in '20 https://t.co/Kasyy2m0zc https://t.co/Qa8MCMdg0Z — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos same pattern existed in '18, fwiw, just with an intercept shift v 16/20. still a tough sign for Democrats in a lot of these Senate races https://t.co/GQvzBVoSp2 https://t.co/RfAZsz4drz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

"Expectations" are the FiveThirtyEight fundamentals. In Wisconsin, for ex., the fundamentals are R+2, the poll average is D+4, so that's Democrats +6 v. expectations. That happens to be fairly similar to the D+8 polling error in 2020 -- a pattern in the Senate battlegrounds — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2022