Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 22, 2022

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Tue Dec 28 19:40:12 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw you can see it all in TX: biased against dems at 50 (hence GOP wins NV pop vote), biased toward Dems in GOP areas (hence Dems at 48% in TX), biased toward GOP in Dem areas (hence Dems at 54% in WA). best fit is red; black line is y=x https://t.co/rF4Yw1GwvI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw however it happened, it seems clear that the pres vote coefficient isnt steep enough, the intercept isn't low enough, and the mean is a bit biased — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw i'm using the numbers on the main table for 'predicted vote share.' i think you're right that the issue might have to do with how you've specified incumbency in the model, but it's a pretty serious problem if it doesn't model open seats well (esp if that's default)? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021 Deleted after 18 seconds