Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 22, 2022

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Tue Dec 28 19:25:01 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw i have several initial theories. one is that your incumbency coefficient is asymmetric, biasing against dems when setting all open seats while reducing your PVI coefficient + setting intercept > 0 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw To take where I'm sitting today, it's just 54/46 D in my home state of WA? WA-7 (Seattle) at 80/20, v. Biden at 89% of major party vote. WA-8 at expected R, despite 53.5% biden major party vote? Yet TX at 48% D and NC at 50%? But VA at 52%? IDK, seems odd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw another is that allowing pvi/incumbency slopes/intercepts to vary by state is a mistake nowadays, and that may be exacerbated by adding state legislative data into the model (which could be a separate mistake) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021