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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 12, 2021

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Mon Nov 01 18:29:56 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On that 'trajectory' point, it's worth noting that we don't really have much data collected in the last week of the race. Most of the intervews were 10/20-27 or so It's hard not to wonder whether you can roll the trend forward, given how clear it was https://t.co/Cb4Lz2ufDX — PolitiTweet.org

J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman

This was a hard call for the Crystal Ball, since it just feels so close -- there are arguments for both candidates.… https://t.co/Qa7dkE9ON0

Posted Nov. 1, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that kind of split, you have to wonder about whether surveys represent non-readers in general. But it seems especially important to consider for online surveys--which literally require reading — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, there's not. To my mind, there's even evidence for a little mean reversion. But we also have a secular negative trend in Biden's approval rating, and I think it's straightforward to argue that there are deeper currents going on right now https://t.co/D4f6v81lyA — PolitiTweet.org

Joel Wertheimer @Wertwhile

@Nate_Cohn Hasn't other Nate indicated there's no good evidence for momentum over mean reversion?

Posted Nov. 1, 2021