Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that in mind, I think that the estimate here--early vote thru Thurs at ~64% for Biden--is a fairly high confidence one. And these estimates have the additional benefit of calibration to 2020 results, unlike our pre-election ests. A key caveat, ofc: McAuliffe isn't Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(on that last point, i see a lot of people saying that this means that mcauliffe has a 300k lead or something. i have no hard data to address how mcauliffe, specifically, is doing in the early vote.) — PolitiTweet.org