Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 12, 2021

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Sat Oct 30 17:13:39 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's all of our pre-election 2020 estimates for absentee/election day vote, by county, v. actual result. (since estimates were calibrated to pre-election polls, basically all of the estimates--but esp election day--are biased toward biden, like the polls) https://t.co/WLjBWVx50Y — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That uncertainty goes down to vote share, since the estimate for election day vote is conditional on turnout. IE: if your prior is that GA is probably going to be close, regardless of turnout, your estimate for election day vote share will have to be very different at 1.5 than 1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that in mind, I think that the estimate here--early vote thru Thurs at ~64% for Biden--is a fairly high confidence one. And these estimates have the additional benefit of calibration to 2020 results, unlike our pre-election ests. A key caveat, ofc: McAuliffe isn't Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021