Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 12, 2021

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Sat Oct 30 16:55:27 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IE: if turnout could realistically be between 4 and 4.5 million in GA runoff, but 3 million have voted early, now the election day turnout range--between 1 and 1.5--just contains a huge amount of uncertainty (the latter being 50% higher turnout) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Think about it like this: if advance voting doesn't really reduce overall uncertainty about the composition of the electorate, but locks in much of the electorate, then basically all of the uncertainty is channelled into the election day vote — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That uncertainty goes down to vote share, since the estimate for election day vote is conditional on turnout. IE: if your prior is that GA is probably going to be close, regardless of turnout, your estimate for election day vote share will have to be very different at 1.5 than 1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2021