Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2021

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Fri May 28 14:49:12 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's useful to go by chamber. Adding up to four Senate seats would certainly help Democrats, but it wouldn't be enough to flip control in any election this decade. It would move the Senate bias from R+5 to R+4. Hardly a huge incentive to remake the GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's not to say that they wouldn't make things tougher on the GOP, but in terms of the magnitude of the effect consider this: the GOP would probably still win all three branches of government in 2016, a fairly close election, if all of those changes were enacted — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

None of this has a real effect on the presidential race. Only adding Puerto Rico has any certain effect, it's only large enough to cancel out the net-6 ev swing that resulted from reapportionment. In '16, it expands Clinton's lead in the popular vote without changing the outcome — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021