Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2021

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Fri May 28 14:49:12 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One theme in my replies yesterday is an assumption that plausible reforms under consideration--ending gerrymandering, DC/PR, HR1, etc.--would so fundamentally change the electoral incentives that the GOP would have no choice but to moderate I don't think that's clear at all — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@StephenBeban as i said, idk whether voters would be better off the other way or not, but the counterfactual is not nearly so clear. the nyc counterfactual is an actual runoff if no candidate breaks 40%, fwiw. it's also probably a narrower field with a clearer choice — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's not to say that they wouldn't make things tougher on the GOP, but in terms of the magnitude of the effect consider this: the GOP would probably still win all three branches of government in 2016, a fairly close election, if all of those changes were enacted — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2021