Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 15:29:52 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think B is a very scary world for poll aggregators. A lot of the underlying samples can be biased the same way. A lot of resulting choices will be similar (try past vote!). And a lot of the choices are calibrated to expectations (aka herding, which risks systemic bias). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One last way to think about it and then I'll shut up. Polling averages can work for one of two reasons: a) poll samples, industry wide, are more-or-less unbiased after basic weighting; b) pollsters, industry wide, can eliminate bias in ways that cancel out in the aggregate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @kkondik can't help but remember that tillis beating hagan by the exact same margin with nearly the same pre-scandal polling average — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021