Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But this has some long term consequences for the FiveThirtyEight scheme as a whole, since a world where live phones can be systematically biased is one where FiveThirtyEight can't reduce bias by calibrating its House Effects to a particular kind of survey — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One last way to think about it and then I'll shut up. Polling averages can work for one of two reasons: a) poll samples, industry wide, are more-or-less unbiased after basic weighting; b) pollsters, industry wide, can eliminate bias in ways that cancel out in the aggregate — PolitiTweet.org