Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Thu Mar 25 15:08:05 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, I don't think the fairly typical average error in 2020 is really worth looking at tbh. I'm not saying it's irrelevant, but it kind of is! If there's no systemic error, the polling averages will be great and the big picture story will be sound, even if error is high — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we get to the point where the typical systemic error is greater than 3 pts or so, I think that's a big challenge. The whole range of presidential election results in my lifetime is, what, R+2 to D+7? 3 pts, either way, includes most natl outcomes — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings, on the other hand, are almost entirely constructed around pollster average error. The ratings basically don't care whether you're biased; the assumption is that they can get rid of the bias with House Effects — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021