Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked April 2, 2021

Created

Thu Mar 25 14:48:52 +0000 2021

Likes

163

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see both the magnitude of systemic bias in this chart, along with the case that there's a trend toward greater systemic bias. And fwiw, I think the D+5 bias is probably mitigated by some 'nonpartisan' firms that, tbh, aren't so nonpartisan or above the board https://t.co/SIYr8lXMop — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd boil down the disagreement to one fundamental thing: I think low systemic bias is far, far more important than important for thinking about the polls than average error, while I think @NateSilver538 looks a lot more at average error — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, should you care more about average error or systemic bias? I think you should care way more about systemic bias. Poll averages can be fine with high avg error, so long as bias is low. But even the lowest avg error on record--4.8 points--would be horrible iff it was all bias — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2021