Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 23, 2022

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Wed Jan 06 00:04:24 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As election day turnout increases, the GOP burden on election day decreases. And interestingly, modeling an increase in election day turnout *does* increase Democratic support on Election Day (this is kind of just a modeling artifact, but there's logic too it) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle will open with both races at '50/50' with a turnout of 4.3m and the GOP winning the Election Day vote by about 30 points. That's nothing more than a best guess of what a 'tie' would look like and it's already wrong--as DeKalb election day turnout surpassed our estimate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But these needle starting 'estimates' aren't a prediction. It has to open somewhere, and it's opening at 50/50 simply because we don't know what'll happen. As results come in, the needle will move depending on whether one side does better than its initial expectations — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021 Hibernated