Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Nov 17 16:02:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The above average swing toward Biden does raise the possibility that the turnout data will be even worse for him elsewhere, though it may just reflect more 'persuasion.' It'll be interesting to revisit this when more of the data is in. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So stepping back: in these counties, we have an older electorate, the black share of the electorate dipped, and no increase in Democratic turnout v. Republican turnout. But Biden gained a net-3.5 points over Clinton in these counties, more than the state/nationwide — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should add that I think it's genuinely surprising that the turnout increased so much without increasing the young/black/dem share of the electorate Nonvoters in 16 were disproportionately young/black/dem. But higher turnout just drew another disproportionately old/white/rep set — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020 Hibernated