Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Nov 17 15:39:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's start with party registration. In these counties, 77% of Democrats turned out v. 82% of GOP. That's a 7 pt increase over 2016 in both cases. As a result, the electorate by party reg in these counties is D+5.8, v. D+7.4 among all registered voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These counties lean a little bit left, with a disproportionate chunk of the white liberal vote (Wake, Buncombe, Durham all in). So I think these numbers could be rosier than the final tallies for Democrats statewide, but I think the patterns will largely hold up — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I mentioned, I think it's possible that it doesn't wind up quite that good for Democrats in the end. But if we do suppose for a second that these turnout rates hold statewide, then you get a D+3.5 electorate v. D+5.3 registration. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2020 Hibernated