Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Nov 10 17:22:04 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the flip side, another possibility is the resistance: the huge surge of political activism on the left. We know political engagement is correlated with survey response. Maybe the folks now donating 100 millions to Senate races are now taking polls way more than four years ago — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some other theories worth consideration, too. It's possible that four more years of Trump did four more years worth of damage to the credibility of media/polls, creating a 'hidden Trump' vote that didn't really exist in 2016 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And a final possibility--and ultimately a falsifiable one--is the turnout. There were a lot of polls showing no LV/RV gap or even a D turnout edge. Not sure that will hold up with final data. It certainly didn't hold up in FL, where we have great data already. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2020 Hibernated