Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Oct 26 17:05:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turnout is obviously a key question in a state with no recent record of competitive contests. In early voting, Biden has amassed a 7 point lead among those who cast ballots by Friday, per L2 data. But Trump has a far larger lead among those who say they'll vote later. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the survey, white college grads in these competitive districts have swung (per their own self-report) from Trump+24 in '16 to Trump+2. But nonwhite voters statewide have swung toward Trump, modestly but significantly given they represent nearly half of voters — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is it possible that Biden can keep drawing such a favorable group of voters to the polls, and upset the estimate here? I can't rule it out. It is also hard not to note that the president's biggest strength here--less educated nonwhite voters--is a very hard group to measure — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated