Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 22 11:44:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I am not sure this is the right choice. But I think the hardest, coldest fact I have is that we *would* have been biased toward too many voter-file black voters in SC/GA/NC/FL and too few Hispanics if we weighted on self-report. I'd expect that nationwide if we had the same data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you look at our last US national survey, you'll note it's 11% black and 13% Hispanic. That's a result of this. If we had weighted to the census, it would have been 12.5 Black, 10.5 Hispanic or whatever, and Biden would have eeked up to a 10 point lead (though gaining <1 pt) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And indeed, that's what our poll shows: basically the same pattern and of a similar magnitude to our SC/NC/FL/GA data, when comparing our self-report to the census-based target. What will be tough: if we run into a state where the gap is quite a bit larger. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated