Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Sep 12 12:19:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another possibility is that it's noise. This is a small sample at N=450, and there's no way around losing precision at that point, even though we have decent party variables. Maybe if we polled it again, the exact same way today, we'd show a number that came closer to our prior. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One is that it's just right, and NH is tougher than assumed. It's hard to say, given the absence of serious polling there. I'd note the last poll was Biden+8... but wasn't weighted by education. This poll would have shown Biden+7 without education weights — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The third possibility is that it's not noise, exactly, but a reflection of some real difficulties. As I said last night, we really struggled there; the voter file was surprisingly bad. And it's our first time polling there--the last top battleground where we've never done a poll — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated