Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Sep 12 12:16:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

State by state, MN/WI/NV were all within 1 or 2 points of what I would have guessed at the outset. NH is quite a bit better for Trump than I would have guessed, and there are three main possibilities worth considering — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Taken together, Biden's up 6 across the four states--which were about 1.2 points right of the country in '16. So I'd say it's basically in line with the national polling, which currently shows Biden ~ +7.5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One is that it's just right, and NH is tougher than assumed. It's hard to say, given the absence of serious polling there. I'd note the last poll was Biden+8... but wasn't weighted by education. This poll would have shown Biden+7 without education weights — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated