Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Sep 12 11:24:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It implies a normal nonvoters turnout: even no change in the aggregate turnout rate usually involves quite a bit of churn. 10 percent of the likely electorate voted in '18 or the 20 primary not '16, for instance. https://t.co/bAdeWJK9zV — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn So this implies an extraordinarily high turnout from non voters?

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Average RV/LV gap: Trump+1.3. Seems reasonable, though who knows — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And already in mail voting requests, usually a high turnout group of voters, there are some states where ~15% of the requests are from 2016 nonvoters. If your assumption is that the 2020 electorate = everyone from 2020 plus a few, that's just not the way elections work — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 12, 2020 Hibernated Just a Typo