Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sun Sep 06 21:30:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 I think it's a perfectly fine economic-fundamentals based prior, and I *suspect* a non-Trump president would be favored to win reelection — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 again, i think the model pages are quite clear. but the EC/PV split helps explain a bit of the gap here, as ~tied nationally is not 50/50, like you said — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 But if you accept the critique of economic fundamentals in a plainly out-of-sample year, which I think you do, then it's hard for me to justify leaning on a prior other than 50/50 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated