Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sun Sep 06 20:40:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I thought I was sympathetic to FiveThirtyEight on the fundamentals, since I think we largely agree that we have zero clue about the fundamentals in this election. I absolutely do not share the view, for ex, that we can be confident that the economy made Trump a 10 pt underdog — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, uncertainty has been the key front in the 2020 model wars. And I have to say that I'm pretty sympathetic to the 538 side of the case there. But the fundamentals play a big role in these models as well, and I'm a little farther from 538 than I thought I was on this — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you think this is basically an out of sample election, I'd think your prior would be non-existent/ 50/50. But if you say the fundamentals make Trump a 5 pt fav in tipping points, and that's 18% of the estimate, then I think you're making a claim you do know the fundamentals — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated