Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 17, 2021

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Sun Sep 06 20:37:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, uncertainty debates has been the key front of the 2020 model wars. And I have to say that I'm pretty sympathetic to the 538 side of the case there. But the fundamentals play a big role in the models as well, and I'm a little farther from 538 than I thought I was on this — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Deleted Hibernated Just a Typo

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FiveThirtyEight forecast pages now include a fairly detailed account of their estimates. The most interesting thing is that their incumbency+econ-fundamentals make Trump a more sizable favorite than I had assumed, with a prior of Trump nearly up 5 in the tipping pts — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, uncertainty has been the key front in the 2020 model wars. And I have to say that I'm pretty sympathetic to the 538 side of the case there. But the fundamentals play a big role in these models as well, and I'm a little farther from 538 than I thought I was on this — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated