Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

Created

Sat Sep 05 14:07:21 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's one hard, data-driven reason why polling in PA might be easier than MI and particularly WI: party registration. PA has it. MI/WI don't. And WI doesn't even have primary vote history. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here we can transition to another sort of theory: that this is an artifact of state-by-state poll *bias*. Here, the argument is that the pattern of '16 poll bias wasn't due to IRL distribution of undecided voters, but just where state polls struggled more or less — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, it's harder to correct for various kinds of partisan bias in WI/MI and especially WI. If, hypothetically, it was more challenging to reach GOPers in this region, pollsters can do more to fix it in PA than in WI/MI, and you'd get a similar pattern — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated