Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Sep 05 14:04:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After all, the pattern in the polling today is... the same pattern as the pre-election 2016 polling! Trump may win back these undecided voters in the final account, as he did in '16, and outperform the polls in WI/IA and to a far lesser extent --if at all -- in PA. Or not. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Relatedly, one could argue that the same fact would affect the distribution of undecided voters in a way that yielded the same pattern. The places with more '16 swing would have more undecided voters, mainly at Trump expense, leading to a more '12 like pattern. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here we can transition to another sort of theory: that this is an artifact of state-by-state poll *bias*. Here, the argument is that the pattern of '16 poll bias wasn't due to IRL distribution of undecided voters, but just where state polls struggled more or less — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated