Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Sep 05 13:59:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One theory is that Biden gains in the northern battlegrounds involve some mean-reversion to the Obama-era map, which might involved outsized Biden gains in a place like IA or OH, but few in PA. That doesn't seem insane to imagine, esp with Biden doing so well among white voters — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's one basic observation to consider: PA closer than MI/WI would something of a return to the Obama-era alignment. PA was quite a bit closer in '08/'12 than WI/MI. From there, we can work to a number of plausible theories — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Relatedly, one could argue that the same fact would affect the distribution of undecided voters in a way that yielded the same pattern. The places with more '16 swing would have more undecided voters, mainly at Trump expense, leading to a more '12 like pattern. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated