Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 14:33:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike it is different, and yet the fundamental challenge to the forecaster is similar: can i really assume that the future will behave like the past, and does the past contain the range of possibilities for the future? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike a model of the relationship between war outcomes and GDP between 1700-1945 might be useful! it's going to be pretty confused by vietnam and korea though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike broadly speaking, i think the answer to those two questions is 'yeah, kinda' and 'maybe.' i think that's the fivethirtyeight answer, too, more or less. i think your answer is basically yes and yes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated