Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 14:19:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike but, uh, yeah, you should *definitely* have some kind of uncertainty beyond what you've observed in our N=18 or whatever dataset if you want a robust model — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike it is entirely possible that a well-calibrated model should have basically *0* state results outside of the CI in a given cycle, but many outside of the CI in 1:20 cycles with significant systematic error — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike as far as i'm concerned, there is *no* single cycle measurement that's terribly useful to analyzing a model national elections. it's like judging a model of football based on the outcome in one game — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated