Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike it's not wasted knowledge, but it also risks overfitting. if your CI doesn't really allow for the kinds of errors that happened routinely last time--and the reason is because you designed a model that *would* have been better--then I'd say that's what we have here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike it is entirely possible that a well-calibrated model should have basically *0* state results outside of the CI in a given cycle, but many outside of the CI in 1:20 cycles with significant systematic error — PolitiTweet.org