Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

Created

Thu Aug 27 13:27:23 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris now, it's true--having a model that's prepared for craziness in UT will also allow for some wild things in FL. But pretty crazy things happen! By the numbers, Trump+9 in OH in '16 just isn't very different and it just happened in '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris look, it's easy to point out that tail risks probably won't happen. but like, they can and will! and it's hard to train a model to pick up on the risk of it. maybe utah is the IRL state we should have fat tails, and now where you're in very serious danger of being outside your CI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris You know the demographic explanation for OH, so you nod and say it makes sense. But the model doesn't, and so it's got to allow for Trump+9 in FL as a very realistic possibility. And tbh, your model barely even allows for the '16 result in OH/IA at this point! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated