Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 13:23:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris no one knows what the tails look like, since we have like 18 elections or whatever! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris not if the next state on the list is trump+10! obviously it's an extreme example, but it's absolutely true and it's worth mulling it if the example didn't hit on first read — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris look, it's easy to point out that tail risks probably won't happen. but like, they can and will! and it's hard to train a model to pick up on the risk of it. maybe utah is the IRL state we should have fat tails, and now where you're in very serious danger of being outside your CI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated