Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 27 12:55:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris so, yes, it's clinton+4 v. biden+8 or whatever nationwide. but today we know about biden's challenge in the E.C., in terms of both the polls and our priors. this is a good thing, but it means you can't expect equiv national margins to yield equiv p(dem) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris here's PA 8/27. Nowcast '16: Clinton+5.3. Polls-plus forecast '16: Clinton+3.9 (73%) today Poll average '20: Biden+5.3 Polls-plus forecast: ~Biden+4, 52-48 (70%) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris it's not. to take an extreme case, just to prove the principle if not in practice: a mean EC of biden at 290 with biden+10 in the tipping point state, but trump+10 in the next state, would be a higher p(victory) for biden than today's map — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated