Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Aug 10 18:23:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's definitely not the way things work now, if it ever was. Whether due to low response, noncoverage or opt-in sampling, pollsters don't have unbiased samples. Instead, they do a bunch of increasingly heavy handed statistical adjustments to compensate. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this view, polls would only need to be weighted by sample size with a control for house effects, provided that the polls met the theoretical conditions for unbiased sampling — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These choices sometimes put pollsters at odds with poll aggregators. A poll aggregator prefers an unbiased poll, even if it's noisy. A pollster wants to reduce error, and might make choices that induce error to poll it off-- weighting by party identification, to take an easy one — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated Just a Typo